S&P 500 defies seasonal weakness with 2.24% MTD gain in September 2025.
As September 2025 draws to a close, the stock market has defied its historical reputation as the weakest month for equities, delivering solid gains amid Federal Reserve rate cuts and resilient economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 2.24% month-to-date as of September 25, bucking the average -0.8% seasonal dip and extending its year-to-date rally to 12.29%. While late-week pullbacks shaved some momentumโwith the index dipping 0.5% on Thursdayโinvestors remain optimistic, buoyed by cooling inflation signals and corporate earnings beats.
This week’s standouts highlight strength in undervalued sectors like materials and energy, where commodity prices and industrial demand fueled outperformance. Small-cap and value stocks also shone, capitalizing on lower borrowing costs from the Fed’s policy pivot. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent caution that stocks are “fairly highly valued” serves as a reminder to stay vigilant, but the data points to selective opportunities heading into Q4.
Top-Performing Sectors in September
Here’s a snapshot of the leading S&P 500 sectors for the month, based on available performance trends:
| Sector | September MTD Gain | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Materials | +4.7% | Rising commodity prices, led by gold miners |
| Energy | +2.5% | Oil price rebound and geopolitical stability |
| Industrials | +1.8% | Infrastructure spending boost |
| Technology | +0.5% | AI hype tempers amid valuation concerns |
| Financials | +1.2% | Rate cut benefits for lenders |
These gains reflect a broader rotation from mega-cap tech to cyclical plays, with eight of 11 sectors ending positive overall.
Standout Stocks Lighting Up Portfolios
September’s winners spanned commodities, tech hardware, and media mergers. Keep an eye on these for potential carryover momentum:
- Newmont Corp. (NEM) – Up nearly 100% YTD, with strong September contributions from gold’s safe-haven rally amid global uncertainties.
- Seagate Technology (STX) – Surged 94% YTD, driven by data storage demand in AI infrastructure.
- GE Vernova (GEV) – Climbed 86% YTD, benefiting from renewable energy tailwinds and spin-off efficiency.
- Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) – September’s fastest riser in the S&P 500, up over 25% on streaming deals and ad recovery.
- Paramount Global (PSKY) – Jumped 29% in the month, fueled by Skydance merger buzz and content licensing wins.
S&P 500 Monthly Forecast: September 2025 (Chart)
These picks underscore a market favoring tangible assets and merger activity. As we head into Friday’s close, watch for PCE inflation data that could sway rate expectations further.
For investors, the message is clear: Diversify beyond Big Tech, lean into value, and monitor Fed signals. September’s resilience suggests Q4 could build on this foundationโif valuations hold steady.
