🌐 Mid-July 2025: U.S. Economy, Stocks, and Crypto in Focus

At GLHR Investing, we’re analyzing the U.S. economy, stock market, and cryptocurrency market for the first half of July 2025, a period marked by cautious optimism amid tariff deadlines, cooling inflation, and crypto surges. The S&P 500 (SPY) hit ~6,243 points by July 7, up 3.94% over the past month but down 15.6% YTD as of May 23, 2025, while Bitcoin soared to a record $123,153.22. With Trump’s OBBBA tax cuts, 3.2% CPI inflation, and a 30% recession risk (per EY), what drove these markets, and what’s next? Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of economic indicators, stock and crypto performance, and investment strategies to navigate the volatile second half of 2025.

U.S. Economy: First Half of July 2025:
- Key Indicators:
  - Jobs Report (July 3): June added 147,000 jobs, exceeding estimates (115,000), with unemployment falling to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected). Hourly earnings rose 0.22% (+3.71% YOY), supporting consumer strength, per web data.
  - Inflation: June CPI rose 0.3% monthly, 2.7% annually (core CPI +0.2%), aligning with estimates but above the Fed’s 2% target, per web data. Projections for July CPI remain at 3.2%, with risks of 4–4.5% due to oil price spikes, per web data.
  - Consumer Sentiment: Improved to 60.7 in June from 52.2, but spending contracted 0.14% in May, reflecting tariff and inflation concerns, per web data.
  - GDP: Q1 contracted -0.3%, with Q2 estimated at 1.5–1.9%, below 2024’s 2.7%, due to tariffs and reduced consumer spending (-13%), per web data.
- Policy Impacts:
  - OBBBA Tax Cuts (July 4): The $3.7T package boosted disposable income ($1,700–$7,200 for median families), driving 0.3–0.5% spending growth, but added $3.1–$3.8T deficits, pushing 10-year yields to 4.46%, per web data.
  - Tariffs: 125% China tariffs, 25% on Canada/Mexico (paused until August 1), and 50% steel tariffs raised costs 5–10%. A U.S.-Vietnam deal (20% tariffs) and EU pause eased pressures, per web data.
  - Deregulation: Relaxed Basel III rules and pro-crypto policies (e.g., Bitcoin reserve) supported financial and tech sectors, per web data.
- Geopolitical Factors:
  - Iran-Israel conflict (June 21 bombing) kept oil at ~$80/barrel, with risks of $100–$120 if tensions escalate, per web data.
  - NATO’s 5% GDP defense pledge (June 24–25) boosted defense and infrastructure spending, per web data.
- Critical Assessment:
  - Strong job growth (147,000) and cooling inflation (2.7% annual CPI) signal resilience, but tariff-driven costs and deficit concerns ($3.1–$3.8T) raise stagflation risks, per web data.
  - Consumer spending weakness (-0.14%) and a 30% recession risk (EY) temper optimism, per web data.
Stock Market: First Half of July 2025:
- Performance:
  - S&P 500 (SPY): Reached ~6,243 points by July 7, up 3.94% over the past month and 12.02% YOY, recovering from a 19% April drop (5,396.52), per web data. The Dow and Nasdaq rose 0.2% and 0.3% on July 14, respectively, hitting record highs, per web data.
  - Volatility: VIX at ~20–25, with investors brushing off tariff concerns (August 1 deadline) and focusing on earnings, per web data.
  - Sectors:
    - Winners: Technology (+9.9%, e.g., NVIDIA +4.5% on July 15), financials (+10%, e.g., JPMorgan +25% YTD), and energy (+4.9%, e.g., ExxonMobil +10%), per web data.
    - Losers: Consumer discretionary (-1.5%, e.g., Tesla -20.2% YTD), materials (e.g., Waters -13.8% on July 14), and select tech (e.g., Micron -4.8%), per web data.
- Key Drivers:
  - Tariff Optimism: The U.S.-Vietnam deal (20% tariffs) and extended EU/Canada/Mexico tariff pause (August 1) lifted markets, per web data.
  - Earnings Expectations: Q2 S&P 500 EPS growth estimated at 4.8%, down from 13% in Q1, with banks and tech leading, per web data.
  - Inflation Data: In-line CPI (0.3% monthly) supported hopes for Fed rate cuts (20% chance in July), per web data.
  - AI and Crypto: NVIDIA’s H20 chip sales in China and crypto legislation optimism drove tech and crypto-related stocks, per web data.
- Critical Assessment:
  - The stock market’s resilience (SPY +3.94%) reflects tariff pauses and strong jobs data, but high valuations (SPY P/E ~22.2) and tariff risks (2% earnings hit) signal volatility, per web data.
  - Sector rotation to financials and energy, with tech cooling (e.g., retail interest in Mag7+ down), suggests cautious optimism, per web data.
Cryptocurrency Market: First Half of July 2025:
- Performance:
  - Bitcoin (BTC): Surged to a record $123,153.22 on July 14, up 27% YTD, driven by ETF inflows ($1.18B on July 10) and “Crypto Week” legislation optimism, per web data. RSI at 78.85 indicates overbought conditions, per web data.
  - Ethereum (ETH): Rose 6% to above $3,000, up 21% for the week, with $383.1M ETF inflows, per web data. Lags Bitcoin (-85% since 2017 peak), per web data.
  - Other Cryptos: Altcoins like SYRUP, HYPE, and SPX6900 showed bullish momentum, with HYPE up 900% in seven months, per web data.
  - Market Cap: Total crypto market cap hit $3.81 trillion, up from $3.4T in December 2024, per web data.
  - Crypto Stocks: Coinbase (COIN, +1.8%), Strategy (MSTR, +3.5%), and Circle (CRCL, +750% since June IPO) rallied, per web data.
- Key Drivers:
  - ETF Inflows: Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.18B inflows on July 10, with cumulative 2025 inflows at $14.4B, per web data. Ether ETF staking potential boosted interest, per web data.
  - Crypto Legislation: “Crypto Week” (July 14) saw the Senate pass the GENIUS Act for stablecoin regulation, with the House debating broader frameworks, per web data.
  - Bitcoin Reserve: Trump’s executive order (March 6) established a U.S. Bitcoin reserve (198,000 BTC, ~$17B), though no new purchases disappointed investors, per web data.
  - Macro Factors: A weakening USD and global M3 money supply growth (+9%) supported crypto, per web data.
- Critical Assessment:
  - Bitcoin’s rally (+27% YTD) reflects institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, but overbought signals (RSI 78.85) and tariff-driven risk-off sentiment (Q1 dip to $80,000) suggest volatility, per web data.
  - Altcoins and crypto stocks (e.g., COIN +57.7% YTD) benefit from ETF and policy tailwinds, but high valuations (COIN 106% premium) pose risks, per web data.
Investment Strategies:
- Portfolio Allocation:
  - Allocate 10–15% to growth stocks (JPM, COIN, AVGO), 40% to defensives (JNJ, PG), and 30% to bonds (Treasuries) for stability, per prior analyses.
  - Hedge with 3–5% in gold (GLD, +3%) or utilities (XLU, +1%) to counter inflation (3.2%) and tariff risks, per web data.
- Top Picks:
  - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): ~$287, 2.3% yield, P/E ~12, up ~25% YTD, buy near $280, target $320–$330, per web data.
  - Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN): ~$250, 0% yield, P/E ~40, up ~57.7% YTD, buy near $240, target $280–$300, per web data.
  - Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): ~$244, 0% yield, P/E ~60, up ~44% YTD, buy near $230, target $270–$290, per web data.
  - ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM): ~$115, 3.3% yield, P/E 13, up ~10% YTD, buy near $110, target $125–$130, per web data.
- ETFs for Diversification:
  - Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF): ~$51.94, 1.5% yield, up ~10% YTD, buy near $50, target $55–$60, per web data.
  - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): ~$220, 0.7% yield, buy near $210, target $240, per web data.
  - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE): ~$90, 3% yield, up ~10% YTD, buy near $85, target $100, per web data.
- Timing:
  - Buy on SPY dips near $6,000 or stock pullbacks (e.g., COIN <$240), per web data.
  - Dollar-cost average ($500–$1,000/month) to manage VIX (~20–25), per web data.
- Key Catalysts to Monitor:
  - August 1 Tariff Deadline: Reinstatement of 125% China tariffs could hit markets, per web data.
  - July 30 FOMC Meeting: Rate cuts (20% chance in July) could boost stocks and crypto, per web data.
  - Q2 Earnings (July): Confirm JPM, COIN, and AVGO growth, per web data.
  - Iran-Israel Conflict: Oil at $80/barrel risks inflation (5–6%), per web data.
- Risks:
  - Recession Risk: 30% probability (EY) could curb spending, per web data.
  - Tariff Costs: 5–10% cost hikes for tech and consumer goods, per web data.
  - Inflation Surge: CPI at 3.2%, potentially 5–6% with oil spikes, per web data.
  - Crypto Volatility: High valuations (COIN 106% premium) and overbought signals (BTC RSI 78.85), per web data.
Conclusion: Navigating Mid-July 2025:
- The first half of July 2025 saw a resilient U.S. economy (147,000 jobs added, 4.1% unemployment), a stock market rally (SPY +3.94%), and a crypto surge (Bitcoin $123,153.22) driven by tariff pauses, OBBBA tax cuts, and crypto legislation optimism. Financials, tech, and energy led stocks, while Bitcoin and altcoins soared on ETF inflows. However, tariffs, 3.2% CPI inflation, and a 30% recession risk signal volatility. Investors should buy JPM, COIN, and AVGO on dips, diversify with XLF and XLK, and hedge with GLD to seize opportunities in H2 2025.
Why It Matters: In a turbulent 2025 economy (SPY -15.6% YTD), strong jobs data and crypto legislation provide tailwinds, but tariff and inflation risks loom. Picks like JPMorgan and Coinbase offer growth and stability. GLHR Investing guides you to navigate this dynamic market, building a resilient portfolio for 2025’s second half.