Economic shifts from March 2024 to 2025 by GLHR Investing
At GLHR Investing, we’re peeling back the economic layers to compare March 2024 with March 2025, unpacking how the U.S. economy evolved over the past year and what’s driving these changes. From Trump’s policy blitz to market swings, we’ve got the why and the what’s-next covered as of March 27, 2025. Here’s our detailed breakdown in bullet points—your roadmap to understanding where we’ve been and where we’re headed.
- GDP Growth: In March 2024, Q1 GDP growth was tracking at 2.0% annualized (CBO, June 2024), fueled by consumer spending and a resilient post-COVID recovery. Fast forward to March 2025, Q1 estimates hover at -1.8% (X sentiment, @TheInfoCypha), a stark reversal. Trump’s tariffs—25% on Canada/Mexico (eased March 26) and 20% on China—spiked goods prices 2-3% (Peterson Institute), crimping demand. Deregulation added 0.2% to GDP via energy savings (Oxford), but deportations and policy uncertainty outweigh gains, signaling a bumpy Q2 at 1.5-2% if tariffs soften further.
- Inflation: March 2024 saw PCE inflation at 2.8% (EY, March 2025), cooling from 2023’s 6.8% (IMF), thanks to supply-chain unwinds and Fed hikes. By March 2025, PCE climbs to 2.7% (Fed, March 19), with headline CPI at 2.8% (EY). Tariffs and a weaker dollar (5% drop vs. USD, OBR) push import costs up, while energy deregulation keeps oil at $70/barrel (EIA), muting broader spikes. X flags “sticky services inflation” (@KobeissiLetter); expect 2.5-3% through June as Fed holds rates unless PCE dips below 2%.
- Unemployment: March 2024’s jobless rate was 3.9% (CBO), with 160,000 monthly job gains (EY). By March 2025, it’s 4.4% (Fed, March 19), up from 4.1% earlier this month (X @Julianbinsen). Deportations (100,000+ by March 15, Border Patrol) hit construction and ag, trimming 50,000 jobs (NIESR), but manufacturing adds 50,000 from tariff-driven reshoring (BLS). X debates “cooling labor” (@DeItaone); Q2 could see 4.5% if layoffs spread, or stabilize at 4.3% with policy clarity.
- Stock Market: The S&P 500 hit 5,200 in March 2024 (S&P Global), up 10% YTD on AI and rate-cut hopes. By March 2025, it’s at 5,800 (X @KobeissiLetter, March 26 projection), a 5% YTD gain after a tariff-induced 3.1% correction last week. Wealthy investors pocket $2 trillion (UBS), but volatility spikes (VIX at 20 vs. 15 in 2024). X sees “uncertain stability” (@TheInfoCypha); April-June may test 5,600 if Fed cuts (two 25 bps expected) or climb to 6,000 on crypto-driven euphoria.
- Consumer Sentiment: March 2024’s consumer confidence was 104.7 (Conference Board), buoyed by jobs and easing inflation. By March 2025, it’s cratered to 92.9 (X @Julianbinsen), a 4-year low. Tariff price hikes, job insecurity, and Trump’s DOGE spending cuts (75,000 federal buyouts, Reuters) spook households—retail sales growth slows to 1.5% YoY from 3.1% (EY). X notes “pre-emptive inflation anxiety” (@Investingcom); sentiment may hover at 90-95 through summer unless wages rebound.
- Policy Drivers: March 2024 had a lame-duck Biden admin, with Fed rates at 5.25-5.5% (CBO). Enter Trump in 2025—tax cuts (TCJA permanent, February 2025) add $3 trillion to net worth (Forbes), but tariffs and deportations sap $4.7 trillion in GDP over a decade (CAP). Deregulation saves $3,100/household (White House), and a Sovereign Wealth Fund plan (CBO, $50 billion 2025 revenue) eyes long-term gains. X splits on “short-term pain, long-term gain” (@HunterPSU01); Q2 hinges on tariff rollback or escalation.
- Crypto Impact: Crypto was a side note in March 2024—Bitcoin at $69,000 (CoinDesk). By March 2025, BTC’s $87,746 (Yahoo Finance) and Trump’s USD1 stablecoin (Fortune Crypto) add $20 billion to portfolios (Coinbase). GameStop’s BTC pivot (Reuters) and SEC easing (CoinDesk) fuel a 2% market cap bump (Coinbase). X hypes “crypto wealth” (@DaCryptoGeneral); expect $90K-$100K BTC by June if regulations hold.
- Outlook for Upcoming Months: March 2024’s optimism (2.3% GDP forecast, Fannie Mae) fades to March 2025’s uncertainty—EY cuts 2025 GDP to 1.7% from 2.1%, with 40% recession odds. Fed’s wait-and-see (4.25-4.5% rates, EY) and tariff flux could drag Q2 GDP to 1.5% or spark a 2.5% rebound if policy stabilizes. X leans cautious (@NetWorthRising); inflation at 2.5-3% and unemployment at 4.3-4.5% loom through summer—volatility’s the watchword.
From boom to turbulence, Trump’s 2025 gambits have flipped the economic script. At GLHR Investing, we see a rocky road ahead—wealth up, but unevenly so. Dig into the full analysis at glhrinvesting.com!
