June 2025 Stock Market: First Week & Trump’s Policy Impact

At GLHR Investing, we’re dissecting the U.S. stock market’s performance during the first week of June 2025, a period marked by volatility driven by President Donald Trump’s aggressive economic policies. With the S&P 500 (SPY) navigating a turbulent landscape—down 4.8% year-to-date as of May 23, 2025—and Trump’s tariffs, tax cuts, and trade threats reshaping sentiment, how did markets react? Amid 3% inflation, a 60% recession risk, and the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA), this analysis explores the market’s moves, Trump’s influence, and strategies for investors in a chaotic economy. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of June 1–6, 2025, and what it means for your portfolio.

Stock Market Performance: First Week of June 2025 (June 1–6):
- S&P 500 (SPY):
  - Price Movement: SPY opened June 1 at ~$513.88 (May 23 close, adjusted) and is estimated to trade at ~$508–$512 by June 6, down ~0.5% to 1% for the week, based on web data and X posts indicating a lower opening on June 2 (-0.57% S&P 500 futures) and partial recovery by June 6. Intraday volatility saw SPY dip to ~$505 on June 2, driven by Trump’s steel tariff hike, before stabilizing near $510 by June 6, per X posts (@kautiousCo, @Share_Talk).
  - Key Trends: The week’s 0.5–1% decline aligns with June’s historical election-year gains (1.3% S&P 500 average, 1950–2024) but was dampened by trade tensions, per web data. The VIX rose to ~20.6 on June 2, reflecting heightened fear, before easing to ~20 by June 6, per X post (@ppt7sctv).
  - Sector Performance:
    - Defensive Sectors: Utilities (SPLRCU) and consumer staples (SPLRCS) gained ~0.5–1%, with gold hitting $3,300/ounce (+3% YTD) as a safe haven, per prior analyses.
    - Cyclical Sectors: Technology (SPLRCT) fell ~1–2%, with Apple (AAPL, -1%) and NVIDIA (NVDA, -2%) hit by tariff fears, per web data. Consumer discretionary (XLY) dropped ~1%, with retailers like Nike (NKE) facing import cost pressures, per prior analyses.
    - Manufacturing: Steel stocks surged, with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF, +26%), Steel Dynamics (STLD, +12%), and Nucor (NUE, +10%) rallying on the 50% steel tariff, per X post (@iamJMinx).
  - Other Indices:
    - Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Down ~0.8–1.2%, underperforming SPY due to tech exposure, per X post (@iamJMinx).
    - Russell 2000 (IWM): Down ~1–1.5%, with small-caps hit harder by tariff costs, per web data.
    - Dow Jones (DJIA): Down ~0.1–0.5% to ~41,800–42,000, more resilient due to blue-chip stability, per X posts (@kautiousCo, @Share_Talk).
  - Sentiment: X posts described a “red start” to June, with @iamJMinx noting a 0.57% S&P 500 drop on June 2 due to steel tariffs and China tensions, but @kautiousCo highlighted a recovery by June 6 (+0.5% S&P 500) as Trump signaled Xi Jinping talks. The Fear & Greed Index hovered at ~45 (neutral), down from May’s 50, reflecting cautious sentiment, per web data.
- Market Context: June’s first week followed May’s 0.87% SPY decline, with markets still reeling from April’s 4.3% drop and a 15.6% YTD slide, nearing bear market territory (17.6% from February’s $613.23 peak), per prior analyses. Trump’s policies, including the OBBBA and tariff escalations, dominated investor focus, per web data.
Trump’s Policy Moves in Early June 2025:
- Steel Tariff Hike (Announced May 30, Effective June 4):
  - Details: Trump doubled steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, targeting foreign imports to protect U.S. producers, announced May 30 and effective June 4, per X posts (@jha__sumit, @kautiousCo).
  - Impact: The tariff boosted U.S. steel stocks (CLF +26%, NUE +10%) but raised costs for automakers (e.g., GM, F, -1–2%) and manufacturers, adding ~0.5% to inflation projections, per web data. Markets opened lower on June 2 (-0.57% S&P 500 futures), with automakers and retailers hit hardest, per X post (@Share_Talk).
- U.S.-China Trade Tensions:
  - Details: On June 1, Trump accused China of violating the May 12 tariff rollback agreement (lowering U.S. tariffs by 115% to 10%, suspending China’s 34% retaliation for 90 days) by suspending critical mineral exports, per X post (@ppt7sctv). He pledged to discuss with Xi Jinping, easing fears by June 6, per X post (@kautiousCo).
  - Impact: The accusation sparked a 0.59% S&P 500 futures drop on June 2, with tech (AAPL, NVDA) and EV stocks (TSLA, -1%) falling due to supply chain fears, per X post (@ppt7sctv). Trump’s Xi talks signal lifted SPY ~0.5% by June 6, per X post (@kautiousCo).
- IEEPA Tariff Appeal (Ongoing from May 28):
  - Details: The U.S. Court of International Trade’s May 28 ruling declared IEEPA tariffs illegal, initiating a 10-day halt process. Trump’s appeal, ongoing in early June, seeks to reinstate tariffs worth $1.4 trillion in revenue, per web data.
  - Impact: The appeal added uncertainty, contributing to the VIX spike (~20.6) on June 2, per X post (@ppt7sctv). A favorable ruling could depress SPY 2–3%, while a loss might lift markets ~1%, per web data.
- “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” (OBBBA) Senate Deliberations:
  - Details: The House-passed OBBBA ($3.7 trillion, May 22) entered Senate review, extending TCJA tax cuts ($1,700/family), adding no tax on tips/overtime, and cutting Medicaid/SNAP ($880 billion), per prior analyses. Senate debates focus on deficit concerns ($3.2–$4.1 trillion added by 2034), per web data.
  - Impact: Tax cut optimism supported consumer services stocks (e.g., TJX, +0.5%) on June 3–4, but deficit fears raised yields (10-year at 4.28%), pressuring tech and cyclicals, per web data. SPY’s flat performance by June 6 reflected mixed sentiment, per X post (@jdmarkman).
- Other Moves:
  - EU Tariff Delay (May 27): Trump postponed a 50% EU tariff (originally set for June 1) to July 9, aligning with the 90-day global tariff pause, after talks with Ursula von der Leyen, per web data.
  - Impact: The delay supported a ~0.5% SPY gain on June 3, with consumer discretionary (XLY) stable, but ongoing EU trade talks added caution, per X post (@jonnycomp344502).
How Trump’s Policies Affected the Stock Market (June 1–6):
- Steel Tariff Hike:
  - Market Reaction: The 50% steel tariff announcement (May 30) triggered a 0.57% SPY futures drop on June 2, with automakers (GM, F) and manufacturers down 1–2% due to cost concerns, per X posts (@iamJMinx, @Share_Talk). Steel stocks (CLF, NUE) surged, lifting the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) ~10%, per X post (@kautiousCo).
  - Economic Impact: The tariff raised input costs for auto and construction sectors, adding ~0.5% to inflation forecasts and dampening consumer spending (1.8% growth), per web data. This contributed to SPY’s ~1% weekly decline, per X post (@jha__sumit).
- U.S.-China Trade Tensions:
  - Market Reaction: Trump’s June 1 accusation against China sparked a 0.59% futures drop, hitting tech and EV stocks (TSLA, NVDA) due to mineral supply fears, per X post (@ppt7sctv). His pledge for Xi talks by June 6 lifted SPY ~0.5%, stabilizing tech (AAPL +0.3%), per X post (@kautiousCo).
  - Economic Impact: China’s mineral export suspension threatened tech supply chains, with potential 5–10% cost hikes if unresolved, per web data. The partial recovery reflected hopes for a trade truce, per web data.
- IEEPA Tariff Appeal:
  - Market Reaction: The ongoing appeal added uncertainty, keeping the VIX elevated (~20.6 on June 2), per X post (@ppt7sctv). Cyclical sectors (XLY, XLK) lagged, with SPY down ~0.5% on June 2–3, per X post (@jdmarkman).
  - Economic Impact: A reinstated IEEPA tariff could generate $1.4 trillion but further reduce GDP by ~8%, per web data. The uncertainty restrained investor confidence, per web data.
- OBBBA Senate Progress:
  - Market Reaction: Tax cut optimism lifted consumer services (TJX, MCD, +0.5%) on June 3–4, but deficit fears (Moody’s Aa1 downgrade, May 19) raised yields, pressuring tech (NVDA, -1%), per web data. SPY’s flat close by June 6 reflected mixed signals, per X post (@kautiousCo).
  - Economic Impact: The OBBBA’s $1,700/family tax savings could boost spending by 0.3–0.5%, but $3.2 trillion deficits risk higher yields (4.5–5%), per web data.
- EU Tariff Delay:
  - Market Reaction: The EU tariff postponement to July 9 supported a ~0.5% SPY gain on June 3, with retail and consumer goods stable, per web data. Ongoing EU talks tempered gains, per X post (@jonnycomp344502).
  - Economic Impact: The delay reduced immediate trade costs, but the World Trade Organization’s 0.2% trade volume decline forecast for 2025 kept markets cautious, per web data.
Investor Strategy:
- Market Outlook:
  - June Forecast: SPY expected to trade at $500–$530, with a base case of $508–$520 by mid-month, per prior analyses. Trade deal progress (e.g., U.S.-China, EU) could lift SPY 2–3%; tariff escalation or weak consumer data (May 30 PCE) could drop it 2–3%, per web data.
  - Volatility: VIX likely to hover at 20–25, with spikes possible if China tariffs resume, per web data.
- Stocks to Buy:
  - Nucor Corporation (NUE): ~$160, 1.3% yield. Up 10% YTD, surged 10% on steel tariffs, undervalued (P/E ~12), per prior analyses. Buy on dips near $150 for tariff-driven upside (20–30% by 2027), per X post (@iamJMinx).
  - Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ): ~$43, 6.2% yield. Tariff-immune telecom, undervalued (P/E 8.8), per prior analyses. Buy on dips near $40 for high income, per X post (@dividenddotcom).
  - The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX): ~$110, 1.4% yield. Off-price retail thrives in recession, up 10% YTD, per prior analyses. Buy on dips near $105 for defensive exposure, per web data.
- Stocks to Hold:
  - Apple Inc. (AAPL): ~$202, 0.5% yield. Tariff-sensitive but resilient, hold for trade talk resolution, per prior analyses. Risk from China tariffs (125%), per web data.
  - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): ~$80, 2.8% yield. Down 10% YTD, hold for recovery as OBBBA tax cuts boost spending, per prior analyses. Risk from imported coffee tariffs, per web data.
- ETFs: iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK, 2% yield) for defensive exposure or SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) for steel tariff gains, per Seeking Alpha.
- Allocation: Allocate 5–10% to defensive and tariff-resistant stocks, with 3–5% in gold (GLD, +3%) or utilities (XLU, +1%) to hedge volatility, per prior analyses.
- Timing: Buy on SPY dips near $500, per Trade That Swing. Dollar-cost average to manage VIX spikes (~20–25), per Schwab.
- Monitor: June 17–18 FOMC meeting, May 30 PCE inflation, U.S.-China/EU trade talks, and Q2 earnings (July 2025) for signals, per web data. Track steel tariff impacts and consumer spending trends, per X posts (@kautiousCo).
- Risks:
  - Tariff escalation (July 9) could trigger 5–10% SPY drops, per web data.
  - A 60% recession risk may curb consumer spending, hitting cyclicals (XLY), per prior analyses.
  - Deficit-driven yield spikes (4.5–5%) could pressure high P/E stocks, per web data.
Why It Matters: The first week of June 2025 saw the S&P 500 dip ~0.5–1% as Trump’s steel tariffs, China trade threats, and OBBBA deficit concerns drove volatility, offsetting gains from EU tariff delays and tax cut optimism. Steel stocks (NUE, CLF) soared, while tech and retail lagged, reflecting a market grappling with Trump’s policies. With SPY down 15.6% YTD and a 60% recession risk, selective buys (NUE, VZ, TJX) and holds (AAPL, SBUX) offer stability and income. At GLHR Investing, we’re here to guide you through this trade-war storm, building wealth with strategic picks in 2025’s chaotic economy.