June 2025 Stock Market: 18 Days of Trade Tensions, Top 10 Buys & Sells

At GLHR Investing, we’re dissecting the U.S. stock market’s performance over the first 18 days of June 2025, a period marked by trade tensions, tariff pauses, and inflation spikes. With the S&P 500 (SPY) navigating a volatile landscape—down 4.8% year-to-date as of May 23, 2025—sectors like steel and healthcare soared, while tech and consumer goods lagged. What’s driving these moves, and which stocks should you buy or sell? Amid Trump’s tariffs, 3.2% CPI inflation, and a 60% recession risk, here’s a comprehensive analysis of what’s up, what’s down, and our top 10 buy and sell picks, with strategies to profit in a turbulent market.

Stock Market Performance: June 1–18, 2025:
- S&P 500 (SPY):
  - Overview: SPY opened June 1 at ~$513.88 (May 23 close) and surged to 6,000 points by June 6, a 16.7% gain from May 23, driven by a strong jobs report and trade deal optimism, per web data.
  - Performance: By June 18, SPY settled at ~$5900–6000, up ~14.8–16.7% for the month, reflecting gains from June 2–10 (three-day winning streak) and a slight dip on June 11 (-0.5%) after trade news and inflation data (CPI 3.2%), per web data.
  - Key Trends: The market rebounded from April’s 17% discount (April 4) to a 3% discount to fair value by May 30, with June’s rally fueled by tech (up 10.3% in May) and trade pause hopes, per web data. However, volatility persisted (VIX ~20.6), with Middle East tensions and tariff uncertainty capping gains, per web data.
- Other Indices:
  - Nasdaq Composite: Up ~2.18% by June 8, led by chip stocks (e.g., NVIDIA +18% in May), but edged lower by June 11 (~0.8–1.2% YTD), per web data.
  - Russell 2000: Gained ~1–1.5% in June, facing resistance at its 200-day SMA, with market breadth improving (39.1% above 200-day SMA vs. 32.54% in May), per web data.
  - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up ~0.85% by June 6, supported by blue-chip stability, per web data.
- Sectors:
  - What’s Up:
    - Steel: Surged on 50% tariffs (June 4), with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) up 26% and Nucor (NUE) up 8.3% by June 10, driven by HRC prices at $890/ton (+33.3% since July 2024), per web data.
    - Healthcare: Up ~3% YTD, with Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK) gaining ~5% on recession-resistant demand, per web data.
    - Industrials: Up ~8% YTD, led by tariff-driven domestic production (e.g., Fastenal, FAST), per web data.
    - Utilities: Up ~8% YTD, with Duke Energy (DUK) and NextEra Energy (NEE) benefiting from safe-haven demand, per web data.
  - What’s Down:
    - Technology: Mixed, with Microsoft (MSFT) up 12% YTD (+0.5% on June 9) on AI optimism, but Apple (AAPL) down 19% YTD (-1.2% on June 9) after WWDC 2025 updates disappointed, per web data.
    - Consumer Discretionary: Down ~1.5% YTD, with Tesla (TSLA) dropping 20% YTD (-14.69% week ending June 8) and Nike (NKE) down 20% on tariff-related margin compression (4–5% hit), per web data.
    - Consumer Goods: J.M. Smucker (SJM) fell 16% on June 10 after weak Q4 sales, reflecting consumer spending slowdown, per web data.
- Market Sentiment:
  - Investors oscillated between optimism (trade talks, jobs report) and caution (inflation, Middle East tensions), with 70% of 846 U.S.-listed Morningstar stocks up by June 8, per web data.
  - The “TACO trade” (buying dips on tariff delays) fueled early June gains, but fears of Trump’s response to the TACO meme raised concerns, per web data.
  - X posts (@kautiousCo, @ppt7sctv) noted steel’s rally and tech’s struggles, with trade talks dominating sentiment, per X data.
Tariff and Policy Drivers:
- Steel Tariffs (June 4):
  - Doubled to 50%, reducing imports by 18–22%, boosting domestic prices ($890/ton HRC) and steel stocks (CLF +26%), per web data.
  - Impacted downstream sectors (e.g., auto, construction) with 19% cost hikes, per web data.
- U.S.-China Trade Talks:
  - A framework reduced tariffs to 55% (from 145%), lifting markets on June 2–10 (+1.5% SPY), but China’s mineral ban (May 30) caused a 0.59% SPY futures drop on June 2, per web data and X post (@ppt7sctv).
  - June 9 talks in London added uncertainty, with potential resolutions eyed for July 9, per web data.
- OBBBA and Fiscal Policy:
  - The $3.7T tax bill (May 22) boosted spending (0.3–0.5%) but raised deficits ($3.2–$4.1T), pushing 10-year yields to 4.46% by June 17, per web data.
  - Senate debates and a possible July 4 deadline for solar tax credit revisions hit Enphase Energy (ENPH -40% YTD), per web data.
- Federal Reserve:
  - Rates held at 4.25–4.5% at the June 17–18 FOMC meeting, with a 20% chance of a 25 bps cut in July, per web data. Cooler CPI (2.4% in May) raised cut expectations (1.9 cuts for 2025), per web data.
Top 10 Stocks to Buy:
- Nucor Corporation (NUE):
  - Price: ~$160, Yield: 1.3%, YTD: Down 28%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 11, 15% EPS growth, up 8.3% on tariff news, with strong pricing power ($890/ton HRC), per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $150, target $180–$200 (12–25% upside).
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ):
  - Price: ~$140, Yield: 3%, YTD: Up ~5%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 15, recession-proof healthcare, 60+ year dividend streak, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $130, target $150–$160.
- Procter & Gamble (PG):
  - Price: ~$165, Yield: 2.4%, YTD: Up ~5%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 24, defensive staples, resilient to spending cuts, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $160, target $175–$180.
- Fastenal Company (FAST):
  - Price: ~$70, Yield: 2%, YTD: Up ~10%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 28, industrial distributor gaining market share, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $65, target $80–$85.
- Bank of New York Mellon (BK):
  - Price: ~$79, Yield: 2.2%, YTD: Up ~15%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 14, 13% EPS growth, tariff-immune financials, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $75, target $95.
- Verizon Communications (VZ):
  - Price: ~$43, Yield: 6.2%, YTD: Down 12%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 8.8, high-yield telecom, stable demand, per prior analyses.
  - Action: Buy near $40, target $48–$50.
- ExxonMobil (XOM):
  - Price: ~$115, Yield: 3.3%, YTD: Up ~10%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 13, energy resilience, tariff-immune, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $110, target $125–$130.
- Walmart (WMT):
  - Price: ~$80, Yield: 1%, YTD: Up 15%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 30, defensive retail, benefits from OBBBA tax cuts, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $75, target $85–$90.
- Duke Energy (DUK):
  - Price: ~$110, Yield: 4%, YTD: Up ~5%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 18, safe-haven utility, stable cash flows, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $100, target $120–$125.
- CME Group (CME):
  - Price: ~$254, Yield: 1.8%, YTD: Up ~12%.
  - Why Buy: P/E 22, futures exchange thrives on volatility, per web data.
  - Action: Buy near $240, target $285.
Top 10 Stocks to Sell:
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA):
  - Price: ~$295, Yield: 0%, YTD: Down 20%.
  - Why Sell: Overvalued (P/E ~60), 14.69% weekly drop (week ending June 8), tariff costs, per web data.
  - Action: Sell above $300 to lock in gains, monitor $250 support.
- Apple Inc. (AAPL):
  - Price: ~$202, YTD: Down 19%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 30, WWDC 2025 disappointment (-1.2% June 9), tariff risks (18% China production), per web data.
  - Action: Sell near $210, watch $193 support.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH):
  - Price: ~$120, Yield: 0%, YTD: Down 40%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 45, solar tax credit risks (OBBBA), -20% post-House vote, per web data.
  - Action: Sell above $125, monitor $100 support.
- SunRun Inc. (RUN):
  - Price: ~$15, Yield: 0%, YTD: Down 19%.
  - Why Sell: P/E N/A, -37% on OBBBA news, solar sector weakness, per web data.
  - Action: Sell near $16, watch $12 support.
- J.M. Smucker (SJM):
  - Price: ~$110, Yield: 3.8%, YTD: Down ~10%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 20, -16% on June 10 after weak Q4 sales, consumer spending slowdown, per web data.
  - Action: Sell above $115, monitor $100 support.
- Nike, Inc. (NKE):
  - Price: ~$70, Yield: 2.1%, YTD: Down 20%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 25, 4–5% margin hit from tariffs (18% China production), per web data.
  - Action: Sell near $75, watch $65 support.
- United Natural Foods (UNFI):
  - Price: ~$15, Yield: 0%, YTD: Down ~25%.
  - Why Sell: P/E N/A, -14% over June 9–10 after cyberattack and revised loss guidance ($55–$80M), per web data.
  - Action: Sell above $16, monitor $12 support.
- Universal Health Services (UHS):
  - Price: ~$180, Yield: 0.4%, YTD: Down ~5%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 15, -2.9% on June 10 after surgical volume declines, per web data.
  - Action: Sell near $185, watch $170 support.
- Lululemon Athletica (LULU):
  - Price: ~$300, Yield: 0%, YTD: Up 19%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 30, among week’s worst performers (-14.69% week ending June 8), high valuation risks, per web data.
  - Action: Sell above $310, monitor $280 support.
- First Solar (FSLR):
  - Price: ~$260, Yield: 0%, YTD: Down 10%.
  - Why Sell: P/E 25, -4% on OBBBA solar tax credit risks, per web data.
  - Action: Sell near $270, watch $240 support.
Investor Strategy:
- Portfolio Allocation:
  - Allocate 10–15% to tariff beneficiaries (NUE, FAST, XLI), 40% to defensives (JNJ, PG, WMT), and 30% to bonds (Treasuries) for stability, per web data.
  - Hedge with 3–5% in gold (GLD, +3%) or utilities (XLU, +1%) to counter inflation (3.2% CPI) and recession risks (60%), per web data.
- Timing:
  - Buy on SPY dips near $5800 or sector pullbacks (e.g., NUE <$150), per Trade That Swing.
  - Sell overvalued stocks (e.g., TSLA >$300) to lock in gains, per web data.
  - Dollar-cost average ($500–$1,000/month) to manage VIX (~20–25), per Schwab.
- Key Catalysts to Monitor:
  - July 9 Tariff Deadline: Reinstatement could boost steel but hit tech/consumer goods, per web data.
  - U.S.-China Trade Talks: June 9 outcomes and July negotiations could lift markets 3–5%, per web data.
  - June 17–18 FOMC Meeting: Rate cut signals (20% chance in July) could support defensives, per web data.
  - Retail Sales (June 17): May’s -0.9% drop signals consumer weakness, impacting discretionary stocks, per web data.
  - Q2 Earnings (July): Confirm steel and healthcare resilience, per web data.
- Risks:
  - Inflation Spikes: CPI at 3.2%, potentially rising to 4–4.5%, could delay rate cuts, hitting tech and consumer goods, per web data.
  - Tariff Retaliation: Canada’s 35% tariffs and EU’s $4B duties risk trade disruptions, per web data.
  - Recession Risk: 60% probability could curb demand, impacting cyclicals, per web data.
  - Middle East Tensions: Escalation (e.g., Israel/Iran) could spike oil prices ($64.67/barrel), adding volatility, per web data.
Conclusion: Navigating June’s Volatility:
- The first 18 days of June 2025 saw SPY rally ~14.8–16.7% to 6,000 points, driven by trade deal hopes and a jobs report, but trade tensions and 3.2% CPI inflation capped gains. Steel (NUE, CLF) and healthcare (JNJ) led, while tech (AAPL, TSLA) and consumer goods (NKE, SJM) lagged. Investors should buy tariff-protected (NUE) and defensive stocks (PG), sell overvalued cyclicals (TSLA, LULU), and hedge against inflation and recession risks to profit in a turbulent market.
Why It Matters: June 2025’s market surge (+14.8% SPY) amid tariffs and trade wars offers opportunities in steel and defensives, but tech and consumer goods face headwinds. With SPY down 15.6% YTD and a 60% recession risk, picks like Nucor (P/E 11) and Walmart (up 15% YTD) balance growth and safety. GLHR Investing guides you to navigate global tensions, building a resilient portfolio in 2025’s high-stakes economy.