Hey there, sharp investors! It’s Jax, your global pulse-checker at GLHR Investing, on Tuesday, March 18, 2025! Since President Trump took the oath on January 20, the world’s economy’s been spinning—tariffs, oil spikes, and policy jolts shaking up markets from Tokyo to Berlin. You’ve seen the U.S. flex—S&P down 5.3% this month—but what’s cooking beyond our borders? I’m unpacking two months of seismic shifts since Trump’s second term kicked off—sectors, stocks, and strategies included. Let’s jet-set through the globe and see where your money’s at!
Trump inherited a sturdy U.S. economy—2.8% GDP growth in 2024, 4% unemployment, 3% inflation (Investopedia)—but his Day One executive orders flipped the script. Tariffs hit—25% on Canada and Mexico (paused till April 2), 20% on China (effective February 4)—and the world’s scrambling. Europe’s GDP growth’s forecast at 1.2% for 2025 (EIU), down from 1.8%—Germany’s industrial output dipped 2.5% in February as Trump’s steel duties loomed. X posts groan: “Eurozone’s stalling!” China’s battling—1.8% growth projected (EIU)—Beijing’s $1.4 trillion stimulus in Q1 cushioned a 4.5% export drop to the U.S., but retail’s flat. Japan’s Nikkei slid 3% since January—tariff fears hit exporters like Toyota.
Oil’s the wildcard—Trump’s Yemen strikes Saturday (19 dead, Sanaa hit) spiked Brent crude to $82/barrel—up 5% since January—tightening supply as Houthis choke Red Sea lanes (Reuters). Saudi Arabia’s pumping—Aramco’s $121 pre-market mirrors Exxon Mobil (XOM) at $119, up 3%. X buzzes: “Oil’s king again!” Canada’s TSX rose 1.5% Monday—commodity stocks like Suncor ($45) flex—while Mexico’s GDP’s set to shrink 0.2% (OECD) as tariffs bite auto exports. Emerging markets—India, Brazil—face debt woes; borrowing costs hit 6% (Bank of America), slowing growth to 4.5% (EIU).
Stocks reflect the chaos—Lockheed Martin (LMT) at $600 and Geo Group (GEO) at $13.50 ride Trump’s defense push—up 1% and 5% weekly. Intel (INTC) at $23.41—13% surge—bucks tech’s tariff dip; Apple (AAPL) sheds 3%. China’s CSI 300’s off 4%—tariffs sting—while Europe’s STOXX 600 lags at 1% growth. Crypto’s steady—Bitcoin $85K, XRP $2.30 with 167M whale grabs—but tariff noise caps it. X posts: “Defense, oil—safe bets!” Nike (NKE) at $71.63 and Celsius (CELH) at $27.08 hold—consumer grit shines.
Why this matters? Trump’s tariffs—$1,200 household cost (Peterson Institute)—ripple globally, hiking Europe’s inflation to 2.8% (EIU) and China’s to 2.5%. Canada’s exports to the U.S.—75% of total—face a $50 billion hit (Reuters); Mexico’s peso’s down 8%. Japan’s export-driven 1.5% growth stalls—tariffs threaten $70 billion in U.S. sales. Emerging markets brace—India’s rupee dips 3%, Brazil’s real 5%—debt servicing jumps. X warns: “Global trade’s wobbling!” Yet, oil-rich nations—Saudi, Canada—cash in; XOM, Suncor soar.
Investors, pivot smart—XOM, LMT for stability; INTC, NKE for value. Markets wobble—Nasdaq’s off 1.3%—but winners emerge. Explore “The Prize” by Daniel Yergin on Amazon—a masterful take on oil’s global stakes. GLHR Investing Team’s got your edge—navigate this wisely!
Sector Impacts
- Energy: XOM ($119), Suncor ($45)—oil spikes lift profits; Yemen’s key.
- Defense: LMT ($600)—Trump’s orders fuel gains; long-term strength.
- Technology: INTC ($23.41)—supply risks rise, resilience holds.
- Consumer Goods: NKE ($71.63)—steady, tariff costs loom.
- Real Estate: Global rates up—U.S. 6.84%—oil hikes construction costs, demand persists.
Invest with precision,
GLHR Investing Team
