Investors, sharpen your focus—Dollar General (DG) is in the spotlight on March 13, 2025, as a discount retail titan with a twist! Trading at $76.33, up 0.43% today, this $16.77 billion market cap player operates over 19,000 stores, delivering everyday essentials—think cereals, soaps, and seasonal gear—to rural and suburban America. Founded in 1939, it’s a lean machine, raking in $38.69 billion in 2023 revenue by selling brands like Coca-Cola and Hanes at rock-bottom prices. But is DG a steal or a stall-out? At GLHR Investing, we’re dissecting the numbers and market vibes—here’s why it’s a buy, or not, today!
Dollar General’s Q4 earnings hit today—EPS of $1.68 topped the $1.50 consensus, a rare win after mixed surprises. Sales ticked up 5% year-over-year, but growth’s slowing—X posts note “soft demand” from its core low-income shoppers. Trump’s 20% China tariffs, now live, sting hard—higher costs for imported goods squeeze margins already thinned by inflation. Posts on X echo the pain: “Customers are tapped out!” DG’s P/E sits at 11.86, dirt-cheap against retail’s 20-plus average, with a 3.1% dividend yield sweetening the pot. Yet, the stock’s bled 45.8% over the past year while the S&P soared 20.5%—a glaring red flag.
Why the disconnect? DG thrives in downturns—rural focus and counter-cyclical resilience kept it humming through past recessions. Today’s market’s messy—S&P’s down 5.3% this month on tariff fears—but DG’s rural moat and $2.94B EBITDA signal stability. Analysts (21 tracked by Nasdaq) peg a “Moderate Buy” with a $96.05 target—26% upside from $76.33. X splits: “Undervalued gem!” vs. “Growth’s dead!” The catch? Flat comps and tariff pressures cap near-term gains—$1.34B profit’s down 31% from 2022’s $1.66B. Long-term, its 185,800-strong workforce and store sprawl could rebound if rates drop.
Is it a buy? At $76.33, DG’s a value play—pair it with Walmart (WMT) at $80 for retail ballast. Risk looms—tariff costs and stagnant traffic—but $16.77B market cap undervalues its cash flow grit. X posts urge caution, yet 10 “Strong Buy” ratings say strike. Markets are volatile—S&P’s near correction—but DG’s a discount king worth watching. Grab “The Little Book of Valuation” by Aswath Damodaran on Amazon—a sleeper hit for pricing this puzzle. GLHR Investing’s call? Buy on weakness—patience pays!
Invest with precision,
The GLHR Investing Team
