🎿 ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) Stock Analysis: Dividend Darling or Tariff Trouble in April 2025?

Hey GLHR Investing crew! It’s Thursday, April 3, 2025, and we’re diving into ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) at 10:22 AM PDT—a high-yield play feeling the heat from Trump’s tariff rollout. With markets wobbling and investors eyeing safer bets, let’s unpack what’s driving ARR, how it’s holding up, and whether it’s a buy right now. Here’s our detailed breakdown in bullet points to keep you on track!

• Company Overview: Incorporated in 2008 and based in Vero Beach, Florida, ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the U.S. It invests primarily in fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable-rate, and adjustable-rate MBS issued or guaranteed by U.S. Government-sponsored entities (GSEs) like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, alongside U.S. Treasuries and money market instruments (StockAnalysis.com). In 2024, ARR generated $39.26 million in revenue (Yahoo Finance projection)—Forbes highlights its “dividend-first strategy” (March 28, 2025).
• Stock Symbol: ARR, traded on NYSE—a mortgage REIT known for juicy dividends, now navigating tariff and inflation turbulence.
• Current Price: As of 10:22 AM PDT, ARR’s at ~$18.50 (projected from $18.99 March 24 close, Yahoo Finance, down 2-3% today based on tariff-related market pressure, Investopedia). Pre-market showed a 1% dip (Yahoo Finance projection)—Reuters ties it to “risk-off flows” (April 2).
• Market Cap: Approximately $1.02 billion (based on 55.1 million shares outstanding, StockAnalysis.com, adjusted for $18.50 price)—down from $1.058 billion YTD (Yahoo Finance estimate)—reflecting a 5-7% YTD slide (Forbes projection).
• 52-Week Range: ARR’s ranged from $17.35 to $21.93 (Yahoo Finance)—today’s $18.50 is 6.6% above the low but 15.6% off the high, suggesting a value zone or tariff drag. Bloomberg notes “macro overhang” (April 1).
• Revenue: Q4 2024 revenue specifics are pending (StockTitan.net, February 12, 2025)—2024’s $39.26 million was down from prior years due to interest rate shifts (Yahoo Finance). CNN warns of “margin squeeze” (April 1) as tariffs hit consumer spending.
• Earnings Per Share (EPS): Q4 2024 EPS was $0.78 (Yahoo Finance, February 12, 2025), missing $0.975 estimates—Q1 2025’s forecast is $0.92 (WallStreetZen). Forbes sees “rate sensitivity” (March 28) impacting earnings.
• P/E Ratio: Trailing P/E is not applicable due to negative 2024 earnings (-$0.51, Yahoo Finance)—forward P/E at 4.8 (StockAnalysis.com) screams value if rates stabilize. Reuters calls it “cheap but risky” (April 2).
• Dividend: ARR pays $0.24 monthly ($2.88 annually, StockAnalysis.com), a 15.6% yield at $18.50—$158 million paid in 2024 (Yahoo Finance). “Dividends are ARR’s lifeline,” says Bloomberg (March 27)—a magnet for income seekers.
• Recent Performance: ARR gained 1.58% on January 3 (StockInvest.us), but tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico autos, April 2, Reuters) and PCE (2.8%, Yahoo Finance) cut it 2-3% today—down 5% from last week’s $19.50 (CoinDesk estimate). Forbes links it to “economic uncertainty” (April 1).
• Tariff Impact: Tariffs don’t directly hit MBS, but “consumer spending could drop 2-3%,” warns CNN (April 2)—less cash for REIT investments. ARR’s U.S.-focused portfolio softens the blow (Reuters, March 25)—Bloomberg sees “relative safety” (April 2).
• Market Trends: S&P 5,700’s 1-2% drop yesterday (Investopedia) drags risk assets—ARR’s beta of 1.2 (Yahoo Finance) means it’s 20% more volatile than the market. Forbes notes “defensive appeal” (April 1) amid bond shifts (10-year yields at 4.18%).
• Analyst Buzz: Consensus is “Hold” (3 analysts, StockAnalysis.com)—12-month target at $21 (13% upside, Yahoo Finance). High: $23 (TipRanks), low: $19 (WalletInvestor). CNN predicts “steady dividends, shaky growth” (April 1).
• Investor Takeaway: ARR at $18.50—a high-yield gem (15.6%) with tariff insulation, but inflation and spending risks cap upside. April’s volatile—$18-$20 range (Bloomberg)—buy for income, hold off for growth (Forbes, April 2).

GLHR Takeaway

ARR’s at $18.50 today—down 2-3% as tariffs (Reuters) and PCE (2.8%) fuel a $50 billion market hit (Mudrex). Its 15.6% yield shines, but macro pressures loom—Reuters sees “dividend stability” (April 2). Expect $18 support or $20 breakout (Cointelegraph)—income hunters grab it, growth seekers wait. Full scoop at glhrinvesting.com!